December 19, 2024

Last week, Hawai‘i Pacific University’s Center for Marine Debris Research (CMDR) launched a publicly-accessible website that estimates the daily location of the North Pacific Garbage Patch (NPGP) in the North Pacific, and provides a month-long forecast of the quantities of marine debris that will likely impact each of the Hawaiian Islands.

As Hawaiʻi’s unique geographical location makes the islands particularly vulnerable to plastic marine debris released from any ocean or shoreline location within the North Pacific, this tool lets scientists and the public anticipate and respond to large influxes of marine debris which is critical in mitigating environmental damage caused by the drifting debris.

Dr. Jennifer Lynch, co-director at CMDR noted “This model is so important for many reasons. First, it shows the world that the NPGP is a real thing, an unfortunate result of the world’s production, use, and disposal of persistent plastic products. It is also an invaluable tool for teachers of environmental science, oceanography, or marine science. Perhaps most importantly, it helps us prioritize our marine debris response work—we are constantly receiving derelict fishing gear from the nearshore waters and shorelines of Oʻahu so there is no time to rest.”

The NPGP, commonly misunderstood as a “floating island,” is a dynamic region with higher concentrations of marine debris, primarily plastic, that has no definite boundaries. Its “wobbling” movement between Hawai‘i and the U.S. West Coast follows a cyclic ocean-atmosphere pattern, leading to periods of heightened debris influx in Hawai‘i. While most of this debris does not arrive directly from the source, it spills from the NPGP where it has often resided for many years.

Beginning in fall 2023, Hawai‘i’s shorelines and nearshore waters experienced a significant increase in marine debris due to the proximity to the NPGP, which still continues to this day. The increased influx of debris is displayed on the website as a time-lapse video of the floating marine debris concentrations from January 2023 to November 2024. The website also displays the daily location of the NPGP which enables marine debris removal organizations, such as the CMDR, to better predict and prioritize cleanup efforts.

“In 2024, 31 tons of plastic marine debris have been removed by commercial fishers, a sharp rise from just 8.5 tons the previous year,” Dr. Lynch added. “This debris doesn’t originate from Hawai‘i-based fishing operations, but rather from the NPGP. When the patch moves closer, our efforts ramp up significantly.”

Tips on navigating the website:

Visit: https://www.hpu.edu/cncs/cmdr/research/seagrant-detect.html
The “open-access model repository” link opens a Google Drive folder which contains:

1. Today’s concentration map that shows the modeled location of the NPGP with relative concentrations of floating plastic marine debris. Yellow colors highlight the central part of NPGP.
2. Today’s anomaly map that shows the difference between today’s concentrations and the mean average between 1993 and 2023.
3. Today’s timeline graph that shows the model hindcast (solid lines) of the past 12 months and a forecast (dashed lines) for the next month of marine debris concentrations near the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Maui and Hawaiʻi Island.
4. Past daily maps are available in a folder called “Archive”.

Funding for the project was provided by the National Sea Grant College Program through the University of Hawai‘i Sea Grant College Program. The scientific model was developed by the International Pacific Research Center, located within the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa’s School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, and is used by the Center for Marine Debris Research.

###

The University of Hawai‘i Sea Grant College Program is part of the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa’s prestigious School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology. It supports an innovative program of research, education, and extension services directed to increasing sustainability of coastal and marine resources and resilience of coastal communities of the state, region, and nation. Science serving Hawai‘i and the Pacific since 1968.